Variant Perceptions

Month: July, 2010

KBW Community Bank Conference

If you are not yet tired of banks, there is a conference on Tuesday and Wednesday organized by Keefe, Bruyette and Woods. You just have to subscribe here to watch it

So many banks so little time, so in those cases it is better to prioritize  and be prepared beforehand. Here is the list of the banks I will listen and why, and if there is a bank that you think I should add please say so:

I bought

I might be interested

  • First Place Financial FPFC: announced an equity raise so it is time to know more about the conditions and the endgame
  • MetroCorp Banchares MCBI Large percentage of C&D loans in Texas and California and was under review by the FDIC. However, the recent results were good and the Houston economy is growing
  • First California Financial Group FCAL I want to see how they are performing after the dilution. Capital ratios are very good and NPAs are trending well
  • Heritage Commerce HTBK:  they are doing a capital raise and want to know more about the conditions. I do not like their large percentage of C&D but I do not know much about the Silicon Valley economy today.
  • United Community Banks UCBI: a bank that was never in my price range so I never did the in depth analysis. Now it is.
  • Eastern Virginia Bankshares EVBS: was crashed yesterday, might be interesting

Just for the fun of it

  • Union First Market Bankshares UBSH: Markel bought a large position
  • CoBiz Financial COBZ: part of Second Curve’s port for quite a while so it is time to understand the business model
  • Heritage Financial Corporation HFWA: looks like a good bank in Washington, and several from that region are popping up in screens
  • Popular BPOP: keeping track of recent developments in Puerto Rico
  • Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida SBCF:  … and Florida
  • Mutualfirst Financial MFSF : … and mortgages
  • German American Bancorp GABC price not there, but clearly outperforming. How are they doing it?
  • WSFS Financial Corporation WSFS : how they grew their market cap at that rate over the last 10 years?
  • Banner Corporation BANR:  they survived?

Long SNBC, NBBC, FDEF


Banks in my Mind: Citizens Republic Bancorp

Don’t you just love it when someone else does your homework? Cale Smith is the open man and has been doing a fantastic job analyzing Citizens Republic – CRBC. He even has a Excel model for those of you that like Excel models: not me but I like data. So it might be better to just pass the ball and  start blocking with some supporting analysis over the next weeks.

CRBC was mentioned in passing a couple of times including one with other financials for January effect picks. I remember that one of those picks was an aggressive one: TSFG, a bank that might be better for a what not do while investing in banking.  Luckily, it seems that Cale and I decided that a more conservative bank was better for a first pick in a troubled sector.

To complement, you might want to check CRBC’s results reported this afternoon. A very solid performance with NPAs, NPLs, delinquencies, provisions, charge-offs, watchlist loans all down. Despite the small loss, all capital ratios and the loan loss reserve were way up … and the disclosure was excellent.

Annual pre-tax pre-provision earnings of $131 million and $613 million of tangible common equity for a $317 million market capitalization?

Cale mentioned he will next tackle the Michigan economy – do not ignore the economy while investing in banking – and if he convinces us that things are improving I might add a second pick in the region.

Long CRBC

UPDATE: Newbridge Bancorp

Today we are seeing that while some new problems continue to emerge, they are generally less frequent, less severe and easier to identify. Consequently, as we look forward, we believe lower credit related costs and stronger operating efficiencies will result in continued improvements in our profitability -CEO Pressley Ridgill

Banking earnings season is back,  while the concerns continue to move from credit issues to the sustainability of a recovery  and the potential impact of a low interest rate environment on future revenues. I have yet to encounter any signs of commercial real estate problems.

Continuing with this trend, Newbridge Bancorp NBBC  also reported substantial improvement in credit conditions. This improvement however has not shown its full impact in the bottom line as it is still aggressively provisioning while conservatively charging off a large part of its non performing loans to their expected recovery.

  • Equity Increased: Tangible book value per common share increased $0.14 for the quarter and $0.16 for the year to $6.99
  • Slightly Profitable: After dividends and accretion on preferred stock, the Company reported a return to positive net income available to common shareholders of $124,000, or $0.01 per diluted share.
  • Core Deposits Increasing:  7% in the quarter and 14% year to date to $944 million. As a percentage of total deposits increased from 55% at December 31, 2009 to 61% at June 30, 2010
  • Nonperforming Assets Stable: declined from the first quarter despite workouts that resulted in a $7.6 million increase in troubled debt restructured loans. As a percentage they were flat at a 4.4%
  • Well Capitalized: tier one capital as a percentage of average assets was 9.09% and total capital as a percentage of total risk weighted assets was 12.62%, well above the levels required to meet the “well capitalized” standards of 5% and 10%, respectively

Regarding commercial real estate Pressley Ridgill was optimistic

Our results are improved because of the substantial write-downs we absorbed earlier in this credit cycle. We are also encouraged that there is greater liquidity in the commercial real estate markets. Values have dropped significantly; however, more and more buyers are pursuing options to purchase commercial real estate

For more information you can check the introductory post

Long NBBC

Tom Brown on loss reserve adequacy

Several questions on this issue. I have nothing to add.

For instance, the two most misleading measures of loss reserve adequacy are 1) the ratio of loss reserves to nonperforming assets, and 2) the ratio of reserves to nonperforming loan percentages. Sure enough, these two metrics are the favorites of many analysts and journalists.

Why are the numbers misleading?  First, they are overly mechanistic. The reserve is built through backward-looking formulas that take into account the institution’s loan mix, its loan grades, and its historic loss rate by loan type for all of its loans, not just the nonperforming loans.

Second, any additional writedown or loss on the disposition of OREO does not come out of the loan loss reserve. Instead it shows up as an expense.  Remember the titles: “loan loss reserve” and “other real estate owned.”  Once a bank possesses the property or other collateral, that property is no longer a loan. It’s an asset. Any further value decline, therefore, cannot come out of the loan loss reserve.

Gauging Banks’ Loan Loss Reserve Adequacy: The Basics

Munger on expecting the unexpected

What’s interesting in Japan is that every life insurance company is essentially insolvent because they promised to pay 3%. Who’d have thought that this could lead to insolvency, but interest rates went to zero and stayed there for years. They tried to invest in equities, but got negative returns. Can you imagine 13 years with negative equity returns and interest rates below 1%?

Is it inconceivable that it could ever happen here? I don’t think so. Strange things happen.

Wesco 2002 Annual Meeting

Recommended

Some good reporting by Heidi Moore for Fortune Magazine touching some familiar themes:

MIT professor rediscovers his Knight’s Risk, Uncertainty and Profit and borrows some ideas from Keynes’ chapter 12 (video)

Kathryn Schulz’s The Wrong Stuff is on a worthy cause looking for what we can learn about being wrong depending on our background (investor, politician, storyteller, astronaut, adventurer, TV personality, sports commentator, lawyer). Do not miss the Niederhoffer and Bagian interviews.

UPDATE: Fortress International Group

FIGI filled an 8K disclosing their sales progress during the first half:

today announced that it has closed approximately  $44.0 million in new contracts for the six months ended June 30, 2010, an increase of nearly 300% compared with $15.0 million in new contracts for the comparable period in 2009.

Seems like the industry capital expenditure is back after the severe cash crunch after Lehman and the pent-up demand is showing. We also discussed the sales uptrend while reviewing the first quarter announcement and the deep cost reductions.

The breakdown by division is as follow:

  • Technology consulting – $12.4 million (includes the previously announced Task Order Contract of $10.0 million, which covers a five-year period)
  • Construction management – $25.1 million
  • Facility management – $6.2 million

It is nice to see some facility management recurring revenue. Management also emphasized that they are getting repeat business from old contracts:

In addition to new contracts, we are attracting considerable repeat business from premier customers such as Power Loft, SAIC, Home Depot, US Army Corps of Engineers, as well as our three fortune 500 IT based customers and the NIH. We also continue to add to our list of recurring service contracts for maintenance and emergency service coverage on containerized systems throughout the US where we see considerable opportunity to capture additional business.

Long FIGI

Banks in my Mind: NewBridge Bancorp

This is the second part of Banks in my Mind written for the Complete Growth Investor a couple of weeks ago .

The following are direct quotes from the latest earnings report. They seem to show a well capitalized bank that once again is profitable and where loan problems peaked almost a year ago while provisions and non performing loans seem to have stabilized and started to decline. It is almost impossible to believe that this bank is priced at 0.35x tangible equity (TE) and 0.5x tangible common equity (TCE).

  • Local Market Share: With approximately $2.0 billion of total assets, NewBridge Bank is one of the largest community banks in North Carolina, and based on deposit market share is the largest community bank in the Piedmont Triad Region of North Carolina. The Bank has 33 offices in the Piedmont Triad Region of North Carolina, the Wilmington, NC area and Harrisonburg, VA.
  • Growing Core Deposits: increased 7% in the quarter to $886 million
  • Well Capitalized: tier one capital as a percentage of average assets was 9.02% and total capital as a percentage of total risk weighted assets was 12.44%, well above the levels required to meet the “well capitalized” standards of 5% and 10%, respectively.
  • Well Reserved: Allowance for credit losses was $35.5 million, 2.48% of total loans, or 63% of nonperforming loans. Excluding loans for which the full anticipated loss has been charged off, the allowance for credit losses totaled 108% of nonperforming loans, compared to 105% at December 31, 2009.
  • Nonperforming Assets Stabilizing: increased $462,000 to $86.0 million, or 4.40% of total assets, at March 31, 2010, from $85.6 million, or 4.40% of total assets, at December 31, 2009.
  • Nonperforming Loans Declining: declined 11% from June 2009 peak to $56.7 million or 2.90% of total assets
  • Profitable: We achieved a first quarter improvement in pre-tax income of $7.0 million from the quarter ended March 31, 2009, to $476,000 from a loss of $6.5 million.
  • High Net Interest Margin: increased 98 bps over prior year’s first quarter, 34 bps over fourth quarter 2009, to 3.97%
  • Net Interest Income Increasing: 23% over prior year’s first quarter
  • Provision Expense Declining: 56% from prior year’s first quarter
  • Efficiency Improving: excluding $1.7 million expense/loss related to Other Real Estate Owned, efficiency improved to 70% in the quarter comparing favorably to 84% for the three months ended March 31, 2009.”
  • Bolt-on acquisitions: We are actively exploring opportunities to grow noninterest income through acquisitions such as Bradford Mortgage, although organic recruitment of talent is likely to remain our best opportunity for growth in the near future.
  • Low Interest Rate Risk: NewBridge Bank maintains a largely neutral interest rate risk position and would generally be unaffected by most rising interest rate scenarios.

It seems too good to be true, so I tried a more stringent capital ratio: tangible common equity over tangible assets (TCE/TA) to avoid including the preferred equity and intangibles. And it is a healthy 5.5%, better than several national banks.

Next, having seen how some banks hide non performing assets (NPAs) problems by selling fast and furious their Other Real Estate Owned (OREO) and taking big equity hits, I checked the common equity trend. And it has stabilized, even though the expected loss for a significant part of their non performing loans has been charged off.

Tangible Common Equity per share

Q1 2010         $6.85

Q4 2009         $6.83

Q3 2009         $6.94

Q2 2009         $6.98

Q1 2009         $7.38

And what about the future? The review of the loan portfolio risk profile is unavoidable in these times. The 12.1% of the portfolio in construction and development loans (C&D) seems OK in my book. The only reason I could find for this bank deep discount, besides the new regulation uncertainty, is the 29.7% in commercial real estate loans but this does not include the risky CRE construction and development loans that are included in C&D. As we have discussed the risk profile of these loans is much safer than C&D and bad underwriting should be transparent by now; but simply it is not there in the numbers.

Did I mention the insider buying? This is another small bank where its CFO has been buying shares: 40,000 shares over the last year with the last few in May. And consider the optimistic outlook after several quarters of conservative guidance:

Through the first three months of this year our financial results have closely tracked our 2010 profit plan. We are optimistic we will have a profitable year that will reward our shareholders. Tough actions we took early in this credit cycle are resulting in improvements thus far this year. We made realistic mark-to-market adjustments on our problem assets and established strategies to reduce expenses and improve our operating margins. These factors should benefit us for the rest of the year. While our net interest margin has steadily grown over the last four quarters, the benefits of lowering deposit costs has largely been realized; therefore, we anticipate a flattening but stable net interest margin in the range of 4%. NewBridge Bank maintains a largely neutral interest rate risk position and would generally be unaffected by most rising interest rate scenarios. The strong expense controls demonstrated throughout 2009 are continuing in 2010 as we maintain our disciplined cost management culture. We are actively exploring opportunities to grow noninterest income through acquisitions such as Bradford Mortgage, although organic recruitment of talent is likely to remain our best opportunity for growth in the near future. – NewBridge Bancorp CEO

Long NBBC

A case for investing in small cap banks

Continuing with our most important theme lately, today in Bloomberg there is an interview with mutual fund manager David Ellison. It points out pretty well the case for investing in small banks while noticing other investors worries.

As usual, I do not like the specific recommendations.  It looks like most mutual fund managers share for public consumption only their most sanitized ideas. So as consequence the recommendations have little edge and are only slightly undervalued. Pretty understandable: little to gain, much to loose

On turnarounds

David Ellison learned a simple lesson from legendary mutual-fund manager Peter Lynch as a young bank analyst at Fidelity Investments in the 1980s: If things at a company are getting better, you want to own its stock.

On banks today

We’re in the process of going from ugly to OK in banking. If you ride the right horses, you will do all right

This is the best time to be making loans I have seen in my career

Bad loans across the industry will be paid or written off over time and replaced by newer and better ones. Banks are lending to creditworthy customers and earning higher profit margins after former competitors such as mortgage companies were wiped out in the financial crisis and housing- market decline

On survivors

The institutions that have survived to this point will rise from the ashes

Smaller banks have fewer moving parts. These guys are the basic American lenders. They will grind through it

A continuing shakeout will eliminate weak players and allow the surviving institutions to gain size and strength. Consolidation will provide greater benefits to small banks because some may be able to double or triple in size

On the new regulatory bill

Would have a limited impact on small banks because they don’t invest in hedge funds or engage in proprietary trading, activities the legislation is designed to restrict. The overhaul will create uncertainty for larger banks without crippling their profits

On management in turnarounds

Ellison recalled that he once hesitated to tell Lynch to keep a bank stock in the portfolio because he didn’t like the company’s management. Lynch listened to Ellison and replied, “But do you think the company is getting better?” When Ellison said yes, Lynch decided they should hang on to the stock. “I learned a lesson,” Ellison said. “People matter. Profits matter more.”

On the economy

An economy that expands 2 percent to 3 percent a year will be enough to support an improving credit climate

US oil production and GOM in historical context

I hesitate to add any comment to this chart. The implications for a potential ban on drilling in the Gulf Mexico and future oil prices should be clear. You may want also see how the most important Mexican oil gusher is doing. From the always interesting The Oil Drum.

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